Fidelity Investments director of global macro Jurrien Timmer believes that Bitcoin (BTC) has a “possible” path to surpassing gold in market value — but “not any time soon.”

In a detailed social media post, Timmer explained his view using a chart comparing the projected growth of gold and Bitcoin over time.

He noted that if gold continues to grow at its historical compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% — a trend seen since 1970 — and Bitcoin follows either a power law adoption curve or the internet’s S-curve growth model, the two could converge within the next 10 to 20 years.

Timmer wrote:

“If Bitcoin grows at the rate suggested by these two models, then hard money is likely winning the race, which suggests that gold will be appreciating faster than 8% per year. So, my guess is that gold will always be Bitcoin’s quieter older sibling.”

The prediction is much more cautious than forecasts shared by other industry leaders like Galaxy and Strategy founder Michael Saylor.

Institutional momentum

Timmer’s comments come amid significant volatility in crypto markets. Bitcoin fell below $84,000 again on March 28, equating to a roughly 33% decline against gold since its December peak.

The price struggles come as inflation concerns and trade tensions continue to weigh on risk assets amid the subdued market sentiment. Meanwhile, gold continues to reach new all-time highs, reinforcing its long-standing role as a safe haven.

Despite Bitcoin’s price decline, major institutions continue to show confidence in the asset. On March 27, Fidelity and BlackRock drove a combined $89 million into Bitcoin ETFs, led by Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), which saw $97.1 million in inflows.

The continued capital injection signals growing institutional conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects — even as near-term price action paints a more bearish picture.

Saylor sees $500 trillion market cap

While Timmer offered a measured take, Strategy founder Michael Saylor recently presented a far more aggressive forecast.

Speaking at the DC Blockchain Summit on March 28, Saylor predicted Bitcoin’s market cap could soar to $500 trillion as it absorbs value from traditional assets like gold, real estate, and even sovereign wealth.

Saylor argued that Bitcoin is replacing “20th-century assets” with a digital, decentralized, inflation-resistant alternative. He compared the shift to historic changes in monetary systems  — like European colonizers introducing coinage to societies that used beads or shells.

Saylor added that the US has the “opportunity to grab” 25% to 30% of global Bitcoin value once the “dust settles” from this asset reorganization.

Still, the debate is clearly shifting. As more institutional money flows in and long-term models project exponential adoption, the conversation is no longer whether Bitcoin belongs in the same conversation as gold — but when and under what conditions it might catch up.

For now, Fidelity’s Timmer urged caution and said the flippening is “possible,” but gold — steady, quiet, and time-tested — still holds the upper hand.

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