Ethereum’s ‘ultra sound money’ narrative has been losing strength recently, as its total supply has hit an all-time high, and the staking ratio has declined by 1% since last November.

However, despite these unfavorable supply-side conditions, new data suggests that ETH still holds strong potential for an upward movement.

Ethereum’s Market Outlook

According to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis, there are several factors at play.

Firstly, Ethereum’s realized price currently stands at approximately $2,200, which is notably lower than its market value of $2,600. This figure reflects the average acquisition cost of all ETH holders and acts as a key support level. With MVRV calculated using the realized price slightly exceeding 1, Ethereum appears to be in a highly undervalued state.

Additionally, the number of long-term Ethereum holders who have accumulated and never sold is rising quickly, which mirrors a trend seen in Bitcoin. Although some whale investors may have exited during the recent downturn, it appears that these permanent holders have absorbed the selling pressure. In fact, a cohort of whales holding 10K-100K ETH have bought more than 600,000 ETH in the past week alone.

Another key factor is that Ethereum’s futures market is experiencing reduced selling pressure. The net market price trading volume chart indicates that although Ethereum’s price has dropped since its $4K peak in November, selling volume has declined to even lower levels. This implies that while prices have decreased, buying interest is gradually strengthening.

To top that, major institutions are aggressively increasing their Ethereum holdings. Companies such as BlackRock (100,535 ETH worth around $276 million), Cumberland (62,381 ETH worth $174 million), and Donald Trump’s World Liberty Financial (WLFI) have continued buying during the downturn. This large-scale accumulation is playing a key role in stabilizing the market.

Hence, CryptoQuant concluded that although the leading altcoin is currently facing supply-side challenges, such as rising total supply and a declining staking ratio, strong demand factors remain in play. While price movement may remain sideways for a few months due to macroeconomic uncertainties, Ethereum’s long-term potential remains intact.

Exchange Reserves Decline

Despite the choppy price action, Santiment data revealed that 9.63 million ETH, worth $26 billion, are currently held in exchange wallets. This figure is the lowest since August 2024. Typically, when investors withdraw assets from exchanges, it signals confidence and reduces selling pressure, thereby lowering the risk of major price drops.

Analysts also believe Ethereum’s future trajectory will largely depend on Bitcoin’s stability and ability to reclaim its all-time high.

Besides, CoinShares recently reported that Ethereum led weekly crypto inflows for the first time in 2025 as it attracted nearly $800 million, nearly double the $407 million that flowed into Bitcoin-related products.

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