10x Research’s head crypto researcher isn’t ruling out Bitcoin repeating its 2024 price action, where it spent the majority of the year consolidating after hitting all-time highs early on.

“Very possible,” Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph when asked what the chances of Bitcoin (BTC) repeating a similar market movement to 2024. In March 2024, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,679 before entering a consolidation phase, swinging within a range of around $20,000 up until Donald Trump was elected as US president in November.

Bitcoin’s current chart signals “market indecision”

Thielen said he had this thought even two months ago, around the time Bitcoin hit its current all-time high of $109,000 on the day of Trump’s inauguration.

He explained in his most recent market report on March 15 that Bitcoin’s current chart resembles a “High and Tight Flag,” which, despite typically being a bullish continuation pattern, shows signs of weakness.

“Two flags instead of a single, precise formation weakens this setup,” Thielen said.

“As a result, the pattern currently suggests market indecision rather than a straightforward bullish consolidation,” he added.

Meanwhile, he also pointed out that the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market shows no signs of a “buy-the-dip” mentality.

“Little incentive” to take advantage of Bitcoin’s recent price dip

“This aligns with our view that most ETF flows came from arbitrage-driven hedge funds. Given the persistently low funding rates, there’s little incentive or willingness to deploy additional capital despite the recent price correction,” Thielen said.

Since the beginning of March, when Bitcoin fell below $90,000, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have recorded total outflows of around $1.66 billion, according to Farside data.

Bitcoin is trading at $84,290 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap. This represents a 23% decline from its $109,000 January all-time high.

Thielen is unsure if Bitcoin’s uptrend will resume in the short term. ”Therefore, it may be prudent to close short positions at this stage, although there remains little evidence to support a strong price recovery,” Thielen said.

Related: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks — Research

Ever since Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Feb. 28 — the first time since November — amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, several crypto analysts have been predicting further downfall for the asset.

On March 10, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes said “it looks like Bitcoin will retest $78,000.” “If it fails, $75,000 is next in the crosshairs,” he added.

Meanwhile, Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph on March 11 that the low $70,000 range could “provide a foundation for a more sustainable recovery.”

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The major disconnect between crypto traders’ growing short-term market uncertainty and crypto builders becoming more bullish than ever creates a prime setup for long-term investors, according to a crypto hedge fund founder.

“This is one of the starkest divergences I’ve seen in sentiment and fundamentals,” BlockTower Capital founder Ari Paul said in a March 14 X post.

Optimism grows among those beyond crypto natives

Paul said that while traders and analysts have turned bearish on crypto recently, crypto developers — and more broadly, those working for crypto companies less focused on the market cycle itself — remain much more bullish.

“All the data points I’m hearing from basically any crypto-related project or company that doesn’t rely on “natives” near-term is positive,” Paul said.

Based on this, he’s confident that crypto is a “good buy” over the “12 month timeframe” but isn’t sure if it has reached a short-term bottom yet. Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland recently said the only way for Bitcoin to confirm that the bottom is actually in would be to close a week back above $89,000.

However, on March 14, the broader crypto market rose slightly, giving traders a bit more short-term confidence.

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked 3.16% to $84,638 over the 24 hour period, while Ether (ETH) rose 1.79% and XRP (XRP) jumped 6.01%, according to CoinMarketCap.

Over the same 24 hours, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, surged 19 points to 46, which is still in the “Fear” zone but nearing neutral territory.

MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s price spike over the past 24 hours has strengthened his confidence in the asset resuming its uptrend by June.

Crypto market presenting opportunity for “sustainable value” investments

“Clearly made a higher low, clearly touching the highs,” van de Poppe said in a March 14 X post.

Related: Bitcoin bull market in peril as US recession and tariff worries loom

“It’s very likely that we’re starting a new uptrend on the lower timeframes going into a good Q2,” he added.

Paul also said it may be the right time to explore traditional venture capital crypto investments with a longer-term outlook.

“A good time to be looking for “traditional” style VC crypto investments.  By “traditional” I mean longer term, genuinely focusing on sustainable value creation, no quick monetization scheme,” Paul said.

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David Sacks and his venture capital firm sold over $200 million in crypto and crypto-related stocks before he commenced his role as the White House AI and crypto czar, a White House memorandum disclosed.

“You and Craft Ventures have divested over $200 million of positions related to the digital asset industry, of which $85 million is directly attributable to you,” said the memorandum dated March 5.

Crypto sell-off in an effort to prevent conflict of interest

The memorandum said “significant steps” were taken to reduce potential conflicts of interest before Sacks began his tenure as the White House AI and crypto czar — in which a major part of his role is to help create a legal framework for the crypto industry.

Sacks offloaded all the “liquid cryptocurrency” in his portfolio, as well as Craft Ventures’ portfolio — the investment firm he co-founded in 2017 — including holdings in Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and Solana (SOL) before US President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.

Since Trump’s inauguration, the crypto market has seen a major decline amid a broader market downturn, with many blaming Trump’s proposed tariffs and uncertainty over US interest rates.

While Bitcoin tapped a new all-time high of $109,000 just hours before Trump was sworn in as the 47th US president, it recently dipped below $80,000 on Feb. 27, erasing all post-election gains. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $84,155, as per CoinMarketCap data.

Sacks also divested from publicly traded crypto-related firms, including Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and stakes in private digital asset companies.

Additionally, he sold his limited partner interest in Solana-focused Multichain Capital and crypto-focused venture capital firm Blockchain Capital. At the same time, Craft Ventures offloaded its holdings in Multichain Capital and Bitwise Asset Management.

Sen. Warren urged Sacks to prove he no longer holds crypto

The memorandum is dated one day before Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren urged Sacks in a March 6 letter to prove he no longer holds any digital assets, following Sacks’ claim in an X post that he sold off all his crypto.

“Despite your public statements via X, it remains unclear exactly when you personally divested from BTC, ETH, and SOL, when Craft Ventures divested from Bitwise, and whether people close to you ‘may have held positions and sold into the recent price surge,” Warren said.

Since Sacks started the White House crypto role, he has been a vocal advocate on various issues in the crypto industry, from the importance of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to not over-taxing the crypto industry.

Related: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks — Research

Sacks recently shut down the idea of crypto transaction taxes on an episode of the All In Podcast after host Jason Calacanis proposed charging a 0.01% tax on every cryptocurrency transaction.

“That’s always how taxes start. They are described as being very modest,” Sacks said.

“You know, when the income tax started, it only applied to like a thousand Americans, and the legislators swore up and down that it would never be applied to middle-class people,” Sacks added.

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The cryptocurrency trader whose ultra-leveraged Ether (ETH) trade tested Hyperliquid’s limits on March 12 has entered another multimillion-dollar position, this time in Chainlink (LINK), onchain data shows. 

On March 14, the anonymous whale, referred to on X as “ETH 50x Big Guy,” took out long positions in LINK worth approximately $31 million with 10 times leverage, according to Lookonchain, a Web3 analytics service. 

He placed the bets on Hyplerliquid and GMX, two popular perpetuals exchanges, Lookonchain said in a March 14 X post. Additionally, the whale accumulated roughly $12 million in spot LINK.

In the ensuing hours, the whale gradually reduced his LINK holdings through small swaps back into stablecoins, as per onchain data. 

Related: Hyperliquid ups margin requirements after $4 million liquidation loss

Massive trading gains

On March 12, the unidentified trader intentionally liquidated a roughly $200 million ETH long position, causing Hyperliquid’s liquidity pool, HLP, to lose $4 million. The trader’s profits topped roughly $1.8 million.

According to Lookonchain, the trader has earned nearly $17 million in the past month on Hyperliquid. 

The incident highlighted the challenges facing perpetual trading platforms such as Hyperliquid, which enable traders to take long or short positions many times larger than their deposited capital.

Hyperliquid said the trader’s actions did not qualify as an exploit and were instead a predictable consequence of the mechanics of its trading platform under extreme conditions. 

In response to the losses, Hyperliquid announced on March 13 revised collateral rules for traders with open positions to guard against similar edge cases in the future. 

Launched in 2024, Hyperliquid’s flagship perpetuals exchange has captured 70% of the market share, surpassing rivals such as GMX and dYdX, according to a January report by asset manager VanEck. 

Chainlink, the most popular decentralized oracle service, saw the price of its native LINK token increase by more than 150% in the weeks after President Donald Trump prevailed in the US election. 

It has since given up much of those gains, declining from highs of nearly $30 per token in December to less than $14 as of March 14, according to data from CoinGecko. 

Chainlink’s market capitalization is currently around $8.7 billion. 

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