1
Apr, 2025
Bitcoin traders are overstating the impact of the US-led tariff war on BTC price
Altcoin News, Bitcoin News, Crypto Analytics, Crypto Industries & Currency Updates
Despite Bitcoin’s 2.2% gains on April 1, BTC (BTC) hasn’t traded above $89,000 since March 7. Even though the recent price weakness is often linked to the escalating US-led global trade war, several factors had already been weighing on investor sentiment long before President Donald Trump announced the tariffs.
Some market participants claimed that Strategy’s $5.25 billion worth of Bitcoin purchases since February is the primary reason BTC has held above the $80,000 support. But, regardless of who has been buying, the reality is that Bitcoin was already showing limited upside before President Trump announced the 10% Chinese import tariffs on Jan. 21.
Gold/USD (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
The S&P 500 index hit an all-time high on Feb. 19, exactly 30 days after the trade war began, while Bitcoin had repeatedly failed to hold above $100,000 for the previous three months. Although the trade war certainly affected investor risk appetite, strong evidence suggests Bitcoin’s price weakness started well before President Trump took office on Jan. 20.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows, strategic Bitcoin reserve expectations and inflationary trends
Another data point that weakens the relation with tariffs is the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw $2.75 billion in net inflows during the three weeks following Jan. 21. By Feb. 18, the US had announced plans to impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while the European Union and China had already retaliated. In essence, institutional demand for Bitcoin persisted even as the trade war escalated.
Part of Bitcoin traders’ disappointment after Jan. 21 stems from excessive expectations surrounding President Trump’s campaign promise of a “strategic national Bitcoin stockpile,” mentioned at the Bitcoin Conference in July 2024. As investors grew impatient, their frustration peaked when the actual executive order was issued on March 6.
A key factor behind Bitcoin’s struggle to break above $89,000 is an inflationary trend, reflecting a relatively successful strategy by global central banks. In February, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.5% year-over-year, while the eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.2% in March.
Investors turn more risk-averse following weak job market data
In the second half of 2022, Bitcoin’s gains were driven by inflation soaring above 5%, suggesting that businesses and families turned to cryptocurrency as a hedge against monetary debasement. However, if inflation remains relatively under control in 2025, lower interest rates would favor real estate and stock markets more directly than Bitcoin, as reduced financing costs boost those sectors.
US CPI inflation (left) vs. US 2-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingView
Related: Coinbase sees worst quarter since FTX collapse amid industry bloodbath
The weakening job market also dampens traders’ demand for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin. In February, the US Labor Department reported job openings near a four-year low. Similarly, yields on the US 2-year Treasury fell to a six-month low, with investors accepting a modest 3.88% return for the safety of government-backed instruments. This data suggests a rising choice for risk aversion, which is unfavorable for Bitcoin.
Ultimately, Bitcoin’s price weakness stems from investors’ unrealistic expectations of BTC acquisitions by the US Treasury, declining inflation supporting potential interest rate cuts, and a more risk-averse macroeconomic environment as investors turn to short-term government bonds. While the trade war has had negative effects, Bitcoin was already showing signs of weakness before it began.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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Learn MoreBitcoin traders are overstating the impact of the US-led tariff war on BTC price
1
Apr, 2025
Backpack opens claims process for former FTX EU users
Altcoin News, Bitcoin News, Crypto Analytics, Crypto Industries & Currency Updates
Crypto exchange Backpack has initiated the first phase of the claims process for former FTX users in Europe.
According to an April 1 announcement, users will need to create an account on the exchange, submit Know Your Customer information, and connect it to their FTX EU claim account.
Backpack has not set a deadline for this phase of the claims process and has yet to provide a timeline for when distributions will begin. Users will face a withdrawal fee of €5 ($5.39) for claims under €2,000 ($2,158) and 0.25% for amounts above it.
Source: Armani Ferrante
Backpack acquired FTX EU in January 2025 to offer crypto derivatives, including perpetual futures, throughout Europe. The acquisition marked the end of a lengthy battle to buy the European arm of the bankrupt exchange.
Backpack CEO Armani Ferrante said at the time of the acquisition that the company was committed to returning FTX EU funds as fast and as safely as possible.
FTX creditor activist Sunil Kavuri told Cointelegraph in January 2025 that the sale of FTX EU to Backpack added “further confusion and nervousness among FTX EU customers and the repayment of their funds.”
“Some FTX EU customers signed up to these distributors, and they are confused about who will be distributing their funds back to them — Backpack, Kraken or Bitgo,” Kavuri said at the time.
Related: FTX’s 2-year repayment delay is a ‘win,’ claims trader who predicted FTX’s collapse
Details on the first part of the claims process
For distribution amounts, the FAQ page on Backpack’s website states that all positions were closed using market prices at the time the exchange was shut down, and each was settled in euros.
Furthermore, users with pending cryptocurrency withdrawals on Nov. 11, 2022, should have filed a claim in FTX’s US bankruptcy proceedings. Such users may be eligible to receive distributions from the FTX Recovery Trust, which Backpack is not involved with.
Additionally, EU residents who signed up for FTX before March 7, 2022, are not considered FTX EU customers and should file their claims with FTX International, not Backpack.
FTX Estate’s next round of distributions on May 30
FTX Digital Markets, separate from FTX EU, distributed its first round of reimbursements on Feb. 18, with exchanges BitGo and Kraken facilitating the distributions. That first round of reimbursements went to “Convenience Class” members, those with claims under $50,000.
The next round of reimbursements tied to FTX’s US bankruptcy proceedings is set to go out on May 30 and includes creditors under Class 5 Customer Entitlement Claims and Class 6 General Unsecured Claims. FTX is expected to use $11.4 billion to make the payments
Magazine: The $2,500 doco about FTX collapse on Amazon Prime… with help from mom
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Learn MoreBackpack opens claims process for former FTX EU users
1
Apr, 2025
Ethereum prints 4 consecutive red monthly candles, but data points to an ETH/BTC bottom
Altcoin News, Bitcoin News, Crypto Analytics, Crypto Industries & Currency Updates
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), registered four consecutive red monthly candles after the altcoin dropped 18.47% in March. The altcoin’s current market structure reflects a sustained bearish trend not seen since the bear market of 2022.
With each monthly close taking place below the previous month’s low, analysts are beginning the debate about whether ETH is approaching a bottom or if there is more downside ahead for the altcoin.
Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio hits new 5-year low
On March 30, the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio dropped to a five-year low of 0.021. The ETH/BTC ratio measures ETH’s value against Bitcoin (BTC), and the current decline underlines Ether’s underperformance against Bitcoin over the past five years.
In fact, the last time the ETH/BTC ratio dipped to 0.021, ETH was valued between $150-$300 in May 2020.
Ethereum/Bitcoin 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Data from the token terminal showed Ethereum’s monthly fees dropped to $22 million in March 20205, its lowest level since June 2020, indicating low network activity and market interest.
Ethereum fees represent the cost users pay for transactions, which is influenced by network demand. When network fees begin to drop, it indicates reduced network utility.
Ethereum fees and price. Source: token terminal
Despite the price action and revenue malaise, Ethereum analyst VentureFounder said that the ETH/BTC bottom could occur over the next few weeks. The analyst hinted at a potential bottom between 0.017 and 0.022, suggesting that the ratio might drop further before a recovery. The analyst said,
“Maybe another lower low RSI and one more push downward lots of similarity with 2018-2019 Fed tightening & QE cycle, expecting the first higher high after May FOMC when Fed ends QT & begin QE.”
Ethereum/Bitcoin analysis by venture founder. Source: X.com
Related: Ethereum price down almost 50% since Eric Trump’s ‘add ETH’ endorsement
Historical odds favor a short-term bottom
Since its inception, ETH has registered three or more consecutive bearish monthly candles on five occasions, and each time, a short-term bottom was the result. The chart below shows that the most back-to-back red months occurred in 2018, with seven, but prices jumped 83% after the correction.
Ethereum monthly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
In 2022, after three consecutive bearish months, ETH price consolidated in a range for almost a year, but the bottom was in on the third bearish candle in June 2022. Historically, Ethereum has a 75% probability of having a green month in April.
Based on Ethereum’s past quarterly returns, the altcoin experienced the least number of drawdowns in Q2 compared to other quarters. With the average returns in Q2 as high as 60.59%, the likelihood of positive returns in April.
Ethereum Quarterly returns. Source: CoinGlass
Related: Why is Ethereum (ETH) price up today?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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Learn MoreEthereum prints 4 consecutive red monthly candles, but data points to an ETH/BTC bottom