7
Apr, 2025
How low can the Bitcoin price go?
Altcoin News, Bitcoin News, Crypto Analytics, Crypto Industries & Currency Updates
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a four-month low of $74,500 on April 7, and data suggests that the price may not have bottomed yet.
Investors dumped risk assets after US President Donald Trump doubled down on his plan to impose global tariffs over the weekend, triggering a $9.5 trillion wipeout in global equity markets.
BTC/USD vs. TOTAL crypto market cap, S&P 500, and MSCI World index one-year performance. Source: TradingView
Growing calls for a US recession have spooked risk investors while leaving crypto market participants wondering how low can the Bitcoin price go in the near future.
Bitcoin eyes decline toward “Saylor’s average entry“ level
Bitcoin is currently testing a critical technical level—the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA)—which has historically acted as a dividing line between bull and bear phases.
According to market analyst Ted Pillows and numerous other chartists, Bitcoin must reclaim the EMA, currently near $77,500, to avoid a deeper correction.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Ted Pillows
If BTC fails to close back above it, Pillows warns of a potential decline toward the $69,000–$70,000 range, which aligns with the 2021 cycle highs. A further drop to $67,000, the average entry-level of Strategy’s Michael Saylor, also remains a possibility.
Source: @ChrisTradesXYZ
Bitcoin “max pain” target is near $69,000
Bitcoin appeared to have found short-term support at around $74,000, which corresponds to a notable cost-basis cluster where over 50,000 BTC are held.
Glassnode’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) heatmap shows this is the first major cost-basis cluster below $80,000. These holders raised their average buy price until March 10, then stopped moving coins—showing confidence, not panic.
Bitcoin URPD heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Investors hold around 175,000 BTC in the $74,000–$70,000 range, creating a strong buffer zone. The largest cluster sits at $71,600, with 41,000 BTC concentrated there, making it the likely next support if $74,000 breaks.
Related: Black Monday 2.0? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Meanwhile, Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price bands place the current average STH cost basis at $89,000, with the -1 standard deviation band at $69,000.
Bitcoin STH onchain cost basis bands. Source: Glassnode
This level has acted as a historical “max pain” zone for short-term investors during pullbacks in previous bull cycles, suggesting the $69,000 level is a floor where weak hands capitulate and long-term investors often step in.
A $50,000 Bitcoin price target cannot be ruled out
Historical patterns reveal Bitcoin entering a prolonged bear market after breaking decisively below the 50-week EMA support. In most cases, such corrections have led the price toward the 200-week EMA, as shown in red circular areas below.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
If the fractal analysis plays out as intended, Bitcoin’s price target in the event of a 50-week EMA breakdown appears to be around $50,000, aligning with the 200-week EMA’s current positioning.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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7
Apr, 2025
Bloomberg analyst predicts Bitcoin could sink back to $10,000
Altcoin News, Bitcoin News, Crypto Analytics, Crypto Industries & Currency Updates
Diving into the chaos of global markets, Bloomberg Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone warns more turmoil could be on the way.
In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, McGlone points to deepening market sell-offs, intensified by US President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff wars, and forecasts a sharp correction in crypto assets. He predicts Bitcoin could tumble to $10,000, citing excessive speculation and overvaluation within the digital asset space.
“Look at Dogecoin — it still has a $20 billion market cap. It should go to zero. The whole space needs purging, just like the dot-com bubble did.”
According to McGlone, Bitcoin’s current price could face significant downward pressure as part of the broader market resets. Despite the relatively supportive regulatory environment, he cautions that Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative is facing a stress test.
“Anybody who bought ETFs is learning the hard way. They did not buy digital gold. They bought more of a value of leveraged beta. That’s a fact.”
McGlone also noted that sharp-eyed traders may still find pockets of opportunities. However, investors should be prepared for a more extended recovery process rather than a quick “V-shaped” rebound like the one seen after the COVID-19 market crash.
The stock market, he argues, has grown disproportionately large relative to the US economy — and now, a reset appears inevitable.
“Back then, the US stock market was around 1.5 to GDP. We popped up to 2.2 or so to GDP. Markets just got too high.”
To gain deeper insights into his analysis and hear more of his predictions, make sure to watch Cointelegraph’s full interview.
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