After years of trade stability, 2025 has seen a rapid shift. In his early days in office, President Trump quickly enacted wide-ranging import tariffs, which targeted specific countries and sectors, using emergency powers.

As such, Binance Research’s latest report notes that if inflation remains high while economic growth slows, the Federal Reserve’s actions will be critical in shaping market outcomes.

Bitcoin’s Potential to Reassert Independence

The new trade tariffs under President Trump’s administration have notably influenced Bitcoin’s correlation profile, offering fresh insights into its behavior during periods of macroeconomic stress. Initially, as trade war rhetoric emerged in January 2025, Bitcoin’s correlation with equities became negative.

This was evident as the 30-day correlation dipped to -0.32 by February 20. However, as the rhetoric escalated and risk-off sentiment took hold, Bitcoin’s correlation with equities climbed to 0.47 by March.

On the other hand, the crypto’s correlation with gold dropped significantly and turned negative as BTC’s behavior increasingly aligned with broader risk sentiment. This shift depicted the growing influence of macroeconomic factors, such as trade policy and interest rate expectations, on cryptocurrency markets.

Despite Bitcoin’s apparent alignment with traditional markets in the short term, Binance’s report highlighted that the crypto retains its distinct identity in the long run. Over the past few years, BTC’s correlation with both equities (~0.32) and gold (~0.12) has fluctuated but has not sustained deep alignment, suggesting its role as an independent asset class.

The recent market response to trade policy shocks revealed BTC’s resilience, as it held steady or even rebounded on days when traditional risk assets faltered. Additionally, long-term holders have maintained a steady supply of the crypto asset, which signaled strong conviction in its value even during periods of high volatility. This behavior is seen as indicative of Bitcoin’s potential to reassert itself as a safe-haven asset, particularly during times of economic uncertainty.

The research suggests that Bitcoin’s future trajectory depends on its ability to return to its historical pattern of low correlation with equities, as seen during past crises such as the 2023 banking turmoil. Binance’s research highlighted that if BTC can reassert itself as a safe-haven asset, particularly in a global economy marked by protectionism and uncertainty, it could regain its position as a non-sovereign, inflation-resistant asset.

This would be especially relevant if global monetary policy shifts, such as potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, coincide with elevated inflation, which would potentially position Bitcoin as an attractive store of value.

Fed’s Response Key to Bitcoin’s Future

Going forward, the broader crypto market faces significant challenges in a stagflationary, protectionist environment. Trade policies, inflation data, and central bank actions are some of the key factors that will influence the future of the crypto market.

A protracted trade war could dampen investor sentiment, but any signs of central bank easing or favorable regulatory developments could provide a boost. Binance report expects the crypto markets to remain volatile and range-bound until global conditions stabilize.

“Should macro conditions stabilize, new narratives take hold, or crypto reassert its role as a long-term hedge – renewed growth could follow. Until then, markets are likely to remain range-bound and reactive to macro headlines.”

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