Bitcoin’s correction may just be getting started. In fact, the crypto sector as a whole could be facing a severe downtrend reminiscent of 2022.

“I could see us going back to a five handle by the end of the year,” Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told CoinDesk in an interview. A “five handle,” i.e. a price between $50,000 and $59,999, would be down substantially from the already shaky current $83,000 level and roughly a 50% decline from bitcoin’s peak just above $109,000 just more than two months ago.

“I don’t think it happens quickly, which is why it would be very painful and shocking to people because nothing about the current market conditions is very volatile, with big liquidations and crashes,” Thompson added. “It’s this sort of different market environment, a slow grind down that is almost more unbearable for people because they’re like, ‘Is it over? Is the bottom in?’”

Thompson, who had been bearish from far higher levels, has repeatedly called the White House’s crypto announcements — be it the Sovereign Wealth Fund or Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, or anything in-between — “nothingburgers” and “sell the news” events. He has also argued that Strategy’s (MSTR) constant bitcoin buys aren’t necessarily bullish for the cryptocurrency, since they seem to be the only significant bid.

The economy’s four headwinds

Central to Thompson’s thesis is the idea that the Trump administration’s various policies will likely hurt the economy for the next six to nine months.

First, the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E), in its efforts to reduce the U.S. deficit, is bent on cutting government spending — which has been one of the largest drivers of job growth in recent years. The labour market was already wobbly when the Biden team handed over the reins to Trump, Thompson said, and the new government’s fiscal arm isn’t interested in propping things up anymore.

“People get caught up in the politics of it,” Thompson said. “We can disagree on whether we need the Department of Education or not. But those dollars were being printed and going into people’s pockets, and those people spent them, and went on vacation and to the grocery store. So it was growth positive.”

Elon Musk, the main force behind D.O.G.E, said last week that he was aiming to cut $1 trillion in government spending by the end of May; he also said he wanted to cut 15% of the government’s annual spending, meaning almost $7 trillion.

Even if D.O.G.E fails its stated objective and only manages to cut, say, a hundred billion over the course of four years, the bigger cuts are likely to occur at the beginning of Trump’s term, not the end, Thompson argued. This means that D.O.G.E’s impact on the economy and consumer sentiment is likely to be felt in the coming months, no matter whether the agency actually succeeds or not.

Second, the crackdown on illegal immigration at the southern border — combined with the renewed emphasis on deportations — is bound to affect the labour market, Thompson said. Migration is growth positive because it puts pressure on wages; if that labour pool dries up, workers will demand higher salaries, which some businesses won’t be able to afford.

Thompson’s third issue is tariffs. The Trump administration keeps changing up its tariff threats on a day-to-day basis, sometimes promising new ones, sometimes calling them off, creating doubt as to whether the majority of proposed tariffs will actually ever go into effect. But the important thing about tariffs is that they create uncertainty for businesses, which may elect to delay investment or hiring decisions until the tariff situation is resolved.

Finally, the Federal Reserve doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to loosen financial conditions because inflation data hasn’t been great. The U.S. central bank cut interest by a full percentage point at the end of 2024, to 4.25%-4.5%, and even that wasn’t enough to push bitcoin above $110,000. Thompson says he expects the Fed to cut anywhere between 25 and 75 basis points in 2025, but that these cuts will be spread out in the second half of the year.

“I think there’s a lot more coordination going on between the Treasury and the Fed than people want to believe,” Thompson said. “People thought Trump and [Fed chair] Powell would be bickering, but they’re actually kind of on the same team right now. [Secretary of Treasury] Bessent and Trump are bringing growth down, and that helps Powell achieve lower inflation.”

When will the bottom be?

With such headwinds working against risk-on assets like stocks and bitcoin, the crypto sector is unlikely to have a good year, Thompson said. The fact that the White House doesn’t seem overly concerned about a potential recession is also a strong signal, he said.

“Bessent is coming in saying, ‘We need to right the ship.’ And righting the ship means cutting off the juice that was powering these crazy asset prices. The direct result of their policies working is a lower stock market,” Thompson said.

But how long is Trump likely to maintain course? Until it becomes too painful and even Trump’s political base tells him to cut it out, or until the beginning of 2026 — you can’t be pushing a country into a recession with midterm elections coming up.

“I equate this to a controlled burn. They’re trying to purposefully clear the brush so that it doesn’t become a bigger problem. But sometimes controlled burns become forest fires,” Thompson said. “I think it’s going to be a long kind of slog through the year as they try to enact these policies.”