TL;DR

• Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares are vying for the first spot in the US XRP ETF, and the SEC review is underway. Approval odds for 2025 are at 81%, fueling optimism in the Ripple community.

• Brazil’s securities regulator recently greenlighted such a product, causing an upswing in the price of the underlying asset.

The Odds are Rising

Over the past few months, there has been an influx of companies trying to launch the first spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. Some of the well-known names include Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares. It is important to note that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially acknowledged their applications. 

Most recently, Grayscale’s filing was posted to the Federal Register. This means that the SEC has until October 18 to approve or reject the move. 

The latest development caused huge enthusiasm across the XRP community, with many members believing the launch of the investment vehicle is now just a matter of time. It is important to note that Ripple’s CEO also shares that thesis, asserting multiple times that an XRP ETF is “inevitable.”

The product’s chances of receiving approval in the US before the end of 2025 have risen to 81% (according to Polymarket). Meanwhile, the odds for this to happen by July 31 remain around 45%. 

Brazil Was First

And while on eyes are on the US SEC, Brazil’s securities regulator – the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários – recently approved the world’s first spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). This pushed the underlying asset’s price to almost $2.75 before retracing at the current $2.67 (per CoinGecko’s data).

However, the potential launch of such a product in America would likely have a bigger impact than the green light in Brazil or any other country. After all, the US is the largest and most influential financial market globally.

The launch of a spot XRP ETF in the nation would introduce the token to a vast pool of institutional and retail investors and could serve as a catalyst for worldwide adoption.

It could also be interpreted as a possible game-changer for the entire crypto industry since it will show a positive stance from the SEC, which recently enforced important changes in its leadership.

Its Chairman, Gary Gensler, vacated his post on January 20 and was succeeded by the pro-crypto Mark Uyeda. A few weeks later, one of the agency’s top crypto litigators – Jorge Tenreiro – was moved to the IT department. 

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