Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently won a leadership contest of the Liberal Party to replace Justin Trudeau, has dramatically increased his odds of winning the next federal election in the eyes of Polymarket bettors.

Carney now has a 49% chance of winning the next Canadian election, compared to 26% a month ago. Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre’s chances are at 51%, down from 72% in February.

The next Canadian federal election is scheduled to occur on October 20, 2025.

However, under Canada’s Westminster system, if the opposition Conservatives and NDP jointly vote against the minority Liberal government on a confidence motion after Parliament resumes from prorogation on March 24, requested by Trudeau on Jan. 6, as he announced his resignation plans pending a new Liberal leader, the government would fall, triggering an election.

Carney closing the gap against Poilievre on Polymarket – despite a lag between prediction markets and the polls – echoes what the polls are showing.

The Conservatives are just one percentage point ahead of the Liberals, according to Canadian pollster Nanos Research, down from nearly a 16-point lead a month ago according to a polling average.

Observers credit this dramatic shift to trade threats from the U.S., with pollsters indicating Canadians prefer Carney’s business sense and central bank experience over his opponent.

This is all a bit of a contrast to last year’s U.S. election, where prediction markets consistently showed that then-Republican candidate Donald Trump had a lead over his Democratic opponents.

The election result, as CoinDesk wrote in an editorial at the time, was only a surprise to those who get their information from CNN.

Crypto on the Canadian campaign trail?

Crypto doesn’t seem to be a major plank of a hypothetical Canadian election. While Poilievre holds a Canadian-issued BTC ETF, according to disclosures, and has previously made pro-blockchain and crypto comments, most of the campaign rhetoric appears to be about the trade war.

Likewise, Carney, who has made mixed if not skeptical comments on crypto in his role as Bank of England governor hasn’t yet spoken about the topic in his new role as Liberal leader.